Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 27.744231 30.517565 33.576471 37.224991 41.490660 46.360645 52.400382
2025-07-27 23.601916 27.304567 31.716903 37.457165 44.874716 54.356008 67.779205
2025-08-03 20.602442 24.721816 29.920565 37.156795 47.309007 61.635877 84.632094
2025-08-10 18.390942 22.691103 28.364902 36.704079 49.242792 68.567020 103.550140
2025-08-17 16.856069 21.285888 27.355109 36.709697 51.687980 76.797298 128.227636
2025-08-24 15.513470 19.953868 26.224072 36.273946 53.250286 83.924704 154.636942
2025-08-31 14.414978 18.831420 25.230807 35.844308 54.657306 91.127607 185.812659
2025-09-07 13.495719 17.869094 24.350380 35.431548 55.957085 98.498119 223.168904
2025-09-14 12.737431 17.070824 23.625734 35.152644 57.413993 106.694447 270.896627
2025-09-21 12.009467 16.255992 22.789046 34.551849 58.096575 113.359548 321.525237
2025-09-28 11.796082 16.205307 23.163117 36.150790 63.649120 134.692705 468.875493
2025-10-05 11.281478 15.642238 22.634406 35.991190 65.335190 146.327887 598.608573
2025-10-12 10.830065 15.157810 22.211190 36.011042 67.536965 161.120047 806.390031
2025-10-19 10.504407 14.853964 22.071742 36.576837 71.234437 183.511704 1220.948331
2025-10-26 10.098635 14.391843 21.614623 36.433682 73.120655 200.892460 1772.552063
2025-11-02 9.694040 13.906826 21.077767 36.055711 74.310777 216.656593 2603.482264
2025-11-09 9.379152 13.553226 20.750809 36.087628 76.675992 240.042183 4559.223778
2025-11-16 9.030252 13.122190 20.249045 35.673804 77.664519 258.034891 8040.313071
2025-11-23 8.707374 12.718825 19.770905 35.259248 78.576247 277.034771 16865.924756
2025-11-30 8.409180 12.343207 19.320144 34.858324 79.460202 297.418864 51022.783112
2025-12-07 8.146609 12.016866 18.942166 34.586868 80.725868 322.464183 771221.557170
2025-12-14 7.865037 11.644496 18.452854 34.000581 80.816924 340.101250 NaN
2025-12-21 7.836621 11.716647 18.832179 35.561753 88.906499 436.529104 NaN